Quantifying the risk of non‐native conifer establishment across heterogeneous landscapes

Pines (genus Pinus) are cultivated extensively for forestry purposes, particularly in regions that outside the genus' native range. The most common species also typically those likely to escape cultivation and spread rapidly, thus pines constitute a substantial weed problem many regions. However, there is limited knowledge of factors underlying from plantations. Assessments across heterogeneous landscapes required provide rigorous data support management tools policies aiming protect vulnerable ecosystems pine invasions. We examined Pinus radiata plantations over ~9,000 km2 landscape on Banks Peninsula, New Zealand. used ground-based surveys set viewpoints determine tree locations, coupled with geographical information system (GIS) viewsheds define area surveyed. boosted regression trees build habitat model P. establishment Peninsula. surveyed an approximately 107 km2, recording 470 naturally established individuals. Our models suggested proximity nearest plantation forest was important variable predicting establishment, individuals establish within 150 m plantation. Individuals were early successional shrub communities, proximate roads, steeper topography. Highly grazed habitats least establishment. slope aspect source influenced distances at which recorded, recorded furthest away have originated south-facing or slopes, therefore exposed strong winds. Synthesis applications. findings established, habitats, interactions we detected among our predictor variables, can be extended aid non-native conifer plantings elsewhere Southern Hemisphere. These contribute improvements decision systems assess risk plantings. Such reduce likelihood future potentially preventing biological