Quantifying Uncertainty in Food Security Modeling

Food security is considered as the most important global challenge. Therefore, identifying long-term drivers of food and their connections essential to steer policymakers determining policies for future sustainable development. Given complexity uncertainty multidimensional security, quantifying extent vital. In this study, we investigated a coupled hydrologic model examine impacts climatic warming on production (rice, cereal wheat) in mild temperature study site China. addition varying temperature, our also three CO2 emission scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5—on production. Our ultimate objective was quantify report sources timing under climate using tested against observed years. shows an overall increasing trend rice, wheat climate. Crop yield data from China are used demonstrate modeling. An innovative systemic approach developed variability with rising demonstrates new insight