Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

Abstract. This article provides a new estimate of error growth models' parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data the ECMWF forecast system over 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model limit value curve. The proposed correction is based on ability Lorenz (2005) simulate curve forecasting comparing estimated for both these systems, as well comparison (?=0.35 d?1) (E?=8.2) system. Parameters quadratic without error, by logarithmic, general, hyperbolic tangent models. average be in < 0.32; 0.41 > d?1 range system; values lower theoretically derived values, approach calculation models presented.