Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model

Abstract. The global carbon budget (GCB) – including fluxes of CO2 between the atmosphere, land, and ocean its atmospheric growth rate show large interannual to decadal variations. Reconstructing predicting variable GCB is essential for tracing fate understanding cycle in a changing climate. We use novel approach reconstruct predict variations next few years based on our prediction system enhanced with an interactive cycle. By assimilating physical oceanic data products into Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), we are able reproduce annual mean historical from 1970–2018, high correlations 0.75, 0.97 growth, air–land fluxes, air–sea respectively, relative assessments Global Carbon Project (GCP). Such fully coupled system, cycle, enables representation within closed therefore provides additional line evidence ongoing anthropogenic GCB. Retrospective predictions initialized simulation which assimilated confidence following year's predictive skill up 5 2 rate. This first study investigating emission-driven system. also reconstruction past evolution near-future concentration changes. this provide valuable inputs informing climate-relevant policy.