Representation of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in a General Circulation Model: Climatology and Response to Global Warming

Abstract The characteristics of tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) simulated with a finer-resolution (~50-km) version the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM4 model are evaluated by comparing comprehensive long-term observational dataset. It is shown that can capture various aspects MCSs reasonably well. spatial distribution broadly in agreement observations. This also true for seasonality and interannual variability over different land oceanic regions. generally longer-lived, weaker larger than observed. Despite these biases, an event-scale analysis suggests their duration, intensity size strongly correlated. Specifically, longer-lived stronger events tend to be bigger, which consistent same used investigate response global warming using time-slice simulations forced prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) sea-ice. There overall decrease occurrence frequency, reduction more prominent ocean.