Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global models (GCMs) to drive variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, then simulates response upper middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSPs). show that five-GCM ensemble improves simulation compared a single model. over UMHRB likely becomes warmer. general trend precipitation is projected increase, increased rates are higher in spring winter than summer autumn. Changes annual evapotranspiration basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal shows different changes (0–18%). average runoff will increase wavelike manner, patterns follow precipitation. soil moisture not obvious, increases slightly. In intrayear process, decreases slightly research enhance realistic understanding assist decision-makers developing watershed flood risk-management measures water conservation plans.