Speculative dynamics
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Speculative Dynamics 1
We develop a method for solving for equilibrium outcomes in stationary strategic settings in which speculators are informationally large and understand how their actions affect the information content of prices. This allows us to characterize speculation by institutional investors who receive private long-lived information on a recurring basis, and trade strategically. When the underlying asset...
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Significant decline in the slope of short-term oil supply and demand curves, along with the meaningful change in the degree of risk aversion in arbitrageurs encouraged us to test the time-varying effects of speculative demand on crude oil price dynamics over the period 1985-2016. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model – with structural shocks identified by Killian ...
متن کاملSpeculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics
This paper analyses the dynamics of a model of a share market consisting of two groups of traders: fundamentalists, who form rational expectations on the fundamental value of the asset, and chartists, who base their trading decisions on an analysis of past price trends. The model is reduced to a two-dimensional map whose dynamic behaviour is analysed in detail, particularly with respect to glob...
متن کاملSpeculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume∗
We present a dynamic theory of prices and volume in asset bubbles. In our framework, predictable price increases endogenously attract short-term investors more strongly than long-term investors. Short-term investors amplify volume by selling more frequently, and they destabilize prices through positive feedback. Our model predicts a lead–lag relationship between volume and prices, which we conf...
متن کاملThe Stochastic Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour
On the basis of the ideas of Goldman and Beja(1980) and Chiarella(1992), we construct a stochastic model of speculative dynamics that has a stochastic equilibrium. In this model, different expectations for the price of fundamentalists and chartists are introduced into the model. The system is analyzed using concepts and techniques from the theory of Random dynamical systems. The model exhibits ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Theory
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0938-2259,1432-0479
DOI: 10.1007/s00199-009-0456-y