Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).
Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to...
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What: Forty-five researchers met to discuss strategies to better understand and predict decadal climate variability. When: 12–15 October 2009 Where: St. Michaels, Maryland T he importance of decadal climate variability (DCV) research is being increasingly recognized, including by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An improved unde...
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Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future stat...
متن کاملFrontiers in Decadal Climate Variability
A number of studies indicate an apparent slowdown in the overall rise in global average surface temperature between roughly 1998 and 2014. Most models did not predict such a slowdown—a fact that stimulated a lot of new research on variability of Earth’s climate system. At a September 2015 workshop, leading scientists gathered to discuss current understanding of climate variability on decadal ti...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Scientific Reports
سال: 2017
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2