Study on the Contribution of Land Use and Climate Change to Available Water Resources in Basins Based on Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model

Under the influence of global climate change and urbanization processes, number available water resources (AWRs) in basins has become significantly more uncertain, which restricted sustainable development basins. Therefore, it is important for us to understand relationship between land use (LU) patterns on AWRs a basin development. To this end, vector autoregressive (VAR) method was adopted construct quantitative model study. Taking Yiluo River Basin (YRB) as an example, dynamic five elements agricultural (AD), woodland (WD), grassland (GD), construction (CD), annual precipitation (PREP) studied. The results show following: (1) constructed VAR stable, indicating that proposed characterize degree effect LU pattern PREP YRB reasonable effective. (2) showed downward trend, their responses were delayed. changes tended occur year after occurred. (3) In long run, contribution each influencing factor 23.76% 6.09% (PREP), 4.56% 4.40% 4.34% meant impact than 90%. This study provides new ideas similar research, resource allocation, planning other river from macroscopic perspective.