Subjective probability and causality assessment

Cognitive Factors Affecting Subjective Probability Assessment

Prior probabilities are central to Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian paradigm assumes that people can express uncertainty in terms of subjective probability distributions. This article will consider Hogarth's 1975 assessment that \man is a selective, sequential information processing system with limited capacity,. .. ill-suited for assessing probability distributions." Particular attention will...

Mood Effects on Subjective Probability Assessment

A person’s mood may directly affect a judgment of the uncertainty of a future event. Subjective probabilities were reported by subjects in a happy, neutral, or sad mood for personal and nonpersonal events. Two moods were induced by having the subject focus on particularly happy and sad personal experiences. Large, consistent mood effects are indicated. Relative to control subjects, happy people...

Local Causality, Probability and Explanation

In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantu...

Subjective Probability ∗

We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wile...

Subjective Probability