The Fallacy of Index-Numbers

Predicting Lotto Numbers A natural experiment on the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand fallacy

We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that were draw...

assessment of the park- ang damage index for performance levels of rc moment resisting frames

چکیده هدف اصلی از طراحی لرزه ای تامین ایمنی جانی در هنگام وقوع زلزله و تعمیر پذیر بودن سازه خسارت دیده، پس از وقوع زلزله است. تجربه زلزله های اخیر نشان داده است که ساختمان های طراحی شده با آیین نامه های مبتنی بر نیرو از نظر محدود نمودن خسارت وارده بر سازه دقت لازم را ندارند. این امر سبب پیدایش نسل جدید آیین نامه های مبتنی بر عملکرد شده است. در این آیین نامه ها بر اساس تغییرشکل های غیرارتجاعی ...

Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers (Reprint)

Samuelson ' S Fallacy of Large Numbers and Optional Stopping

Accepting a sequence of independent positive mean bets that are individually unacceptable is what Samuelson called a fallacy of large numbers. Recently, utility functions were characterized where this occurs rationally, and examples were given of utility functions where any finite number of good bets should never be accepted.1 Here the author shows how things change if you are allowed the optio...

The “banzhaf Fallacy” Fallacy