Three billion new trees in the EU’s biodiversity strategy: low ambition, but better environmental outcomes?

Abstract The EU Biodiversity strategy aims to plant 3 billion trees by 2030, in order improve ecosystem restoration and biodiversity. Here, we compute the land area that would be required support this number of newly planted taking account different tree species planting regimes across member states. We find require a total between 0.81 1.37 Mha (avg. 1.02 Mha). historic forest expansion since 2010 was 2.44 Mha, meaning despite sounding like large target is considerably lower than afforestation rates within EU, i.e. only 40% past trend. Abandoned agricultural often proposed as providing capacity for afforestation. estimate abandoned areas from HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment+ database using two time thresholds (abandonment 2009 or 2014) identify potential planting. 2.6 (potentially accommodating 7.2 trees) 0.2 741 million 2014. Our study highlights sufficient space could available meet land. However, large-scale beyond have displacement effects elsewhere world because embodied deforestation import crops livestock. This negate expected benefits Hence, EU’s relatively low ambition on may actually better terms avoiding such effects. suggest targets should set at level considers physical dynamics well socio-economic conditions.