Transformation of Satellite Breakup Distribution for Probabilistic Orbital Collision Hazard Analysis

Fragmentation clouds from explosions or collision of payloads and rocket bodies in space pose a threat to objects Earth orbit. Most the fragments are too small be tracked can only accounted for statistically. Here, framework fully statistical treatment fragmentation cloud, its evolution ramifications, without need simplifying assumptions, is presented. The cloud modeled as an uncertainty around single fragment, which propagated using any existing, nondeterministic, nonlinear orbital propagation methods. This work focused on providing initial distribution estimation probability. NASA standard breakup model revisited derive probability fragment cloud. Two density transformation methods discussed obtain subset elements, suitable mid- long-term evolution. spatial impact rates targets orbit obtained. method applied show payload low (LEO). Its with satellite LEO body geostationary transfer estimated. result compared against, shows limitations of, sampling based finite differences.