Understanding Arable Land Change Patterns and Driving Forces in Major Grain-Producing Areas: A Case Study of Sichuan Province Using the PLUS Model

The purpose of this study is to reveal the characteristics and driving factors cropland change in Sichuan Province. This summarizes current status coordination among croplands, ecosystem protection, urban expansion region provides suggestions for rational use conservation arable land resources. research methods include ArcGis spatial analysis PLUS model. results show that: (1) area Province has been continuously decreasing over past 21 years, but protection policies have effectively mitigated situation. (2) With exception Chengdu, reduction each city province gradually balanced out, safeguarding development major lagging cities. (3) “Dual suitability” refers conflict between planting. Moreover, due Matthew effect, further promoted construction lands, leaving croplands a weak position competition with lands. (4) showed alternating leadership urbanization population during process occupying cropland. In conclusion, trend improved, cropland, ecosystem, space achieved.