Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur

A Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy?

In times of rapid macroeconomic change it would seem useful for both fiscal and monetary policy to be modified frequently. This is true for monetary policy with monthly meetings of the Open Market Committee. It is not true for fiscal policy which mostly varies with the annual Congressional budget cycle. This paper proposes a feedback framework for analyzing the question of whether or not moveme...

Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?

Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule

This study examines the usefulness of the Taylor-rule framework as an organizing device for describing the policy debate and evolution of monetary policy in the United States. Monetary policy during the 1920s and since the 1951 Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord can be broadly interpreted in terms of this framework with rather surprising consistency. In broad terms, during these periods policy has...

Why and When Will Banner Blindness Occur? An Analysis Based on the Dual Processing Theory

As an advertising tool, banners have been widely adopted by online marketers. However, because of low click-through rates, banners’ effectiveness has been questioned. A phenomenon called “banner blindness” suggests that salient stimuli, such as banners, are often missed by Internet users. This contradicts the distinctiveness view which argues that salient stimuli are more likely to attract user...

West Nile virus: when will an outbreak occur and how can we prevent it?

Emerging infectious diseases are a concern for wildlife and human health. To understand, prevent, and control infectious diseases, it can be helpful to use mathematical models. West Nile virus is a new infectious disease in North America. The virus is transmitted back and forth continually between mosquitoes and birds, and occasionally is transmitted from mosquitoes to humans. We developed a ma...