Volatility and the Gains From Trade
نویسندگان
چکیده
Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second‐moment effects trade. Using forty years agricultural micro‐data from India, show that falling trade costs due to expansions Indian highway network reduced responsiveness yields but increased elsewhere. response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those poor access risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where are determined in general equilibrium many‐location, many‐good Ricardian model flexible costs. Finally, structurally estimate model—recovering risk‐return preferences gradient mean‐variance frontier at observed choices—to quantify The simultaneous expansion both rural bank networks mean variance farmer real income, first‐moment effect dominating expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had remained unchanged, gains would have been only half great, allowed take advantage higher‐risk higher‐return allocations.
منابع مشابه
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By reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks, trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns. In the context of agriculture in developing countries—where production is risky, producers are risk averse, and insurance markets are incomplete—this change in volatility may have large welfare effects. In this paper, we empirically, analytically, and quanti...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Econometrica
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0012-9682', '1468-0262']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta14411