The Efficacy and Effect of Racial Profiling: A Mathematical Simulation Approach

Racial profiling—the use of race, ethnicity, or national origin by law enforcement officials to make judgments of criminal suspicion—is assessed in terms of its effect on targeted populations and on law enforcement efficiency. A mathematical simulation, comparing multiple profiling and non-profiling scenarios, is employed. This analysis indicates that racial profiling exacerbates incarceration disparities between groups whether or not the groups differ in criminality rates, and that the long-term effects of profiling in terms of criminal captures depend on the calibration of profiling rates to criminality rates. The highest long-term criminal capture rates appear to occur when stop rate ratios match, or are slightly below, criminality rate ratios between groups. When the possibility of a deterrent effect is modeled, profiling appears to yield fewer criminal captures and have little or no crime reduction effect, and may even increase overall crime rates. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management