"Some Problems of Selecting Delphi Experts for Educational Planning and Forecasting

[//129]Abstract Two major problems in selecting experts for the Delphi Technique in cost sensitive educational forecasting are considered: 1. Differentiation between levels of expertise; 2. The relevance of experts in forecasting areas where the subject matter is cultural values rather than technology. It is hypothesized that where values comprise the forecast subject matter there will be no significant differences between expert and lay predictions. Evidence is presented from a replication of Rescher's study of the future of American values using lay judges in place of experts. Comparison of the mean item scores for experts and laymen reveals no significant differences for 14 of 17 items, and differences for two items which can be explained on grounds other than differential expertise. Therefore the relevance of experts in cost-sensitive, value-laden educational forecasting is questioned. On cost-effective grounds, it appears that experts are used in such forecasts because of their high status rather than demonstrated forecasting superiority.