Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies

Crop simulation models are an essential tool for testing whether predicted global atmospheric changes are likely to have impact on food production. Any confidence in model predictions must be based on their ability successfully to predict performance in experiments. Accordingly, the predictions of three daily time step wheat simulation models (AFRCWHEAT2, FASSET and Sirius) were tested against data from wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) experiments in AZ in which the amount of applied N and the atmospheric CO2 concentration were both varied. Although there were differences between predicted and observed yields, all the three models predicted yield trends with treatments very similar to those observed. They all predicted, both in absolute terms and in the magnitude of responses, very similar effects of the variations on green area index (GAI), shoot and grain biomass accumulation, and shoot and grain biomass yield to observations and to each other. Comparison of simulated and observed results showed that CO2 effects were expressed through effects on light use efficiency (LUE), whereas N effects were expressed by causing variations in GAI. The exercise showed that the models used have potential for assessing climate change impacts on wheat production. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.