Independence with Lower and Upper Probabilities

نویسنده

  • Lonnie Chrisman
چکیده

It is shown that the ability of the interval probability representation to capture episte­ mological independence is severely limited. Two events are epistemologically indepen­ dent if knowledge of the first event does not alter belief (i.e., probability bounds) about the second. However, independence in this form can only exist in a 2-monotone probabil­ ity function in degenerate casesi.e., if the prior bounds are either point probabilities or entirely vacuous. Additional limitations are characterized for other classes of lower prob­ abilities as well. It is argued that these phe­ nomena are a matter of interpretation. They appear to be limitations when one interprets probability bounds as a measure of epistemo­ logical indeterminacy (i.e., uncertainty aris­ ing from a lack of knowledge), but are ex­ actly as one would expect when probability intervals are interpreted as representations of ontological indeterminacy (indeterminacy in­ troduced by structural approximations).

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تاریخ انتشار 1996