Climate, vegetation, introduced hosts and trade shape a global wildlife pandemic.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Global factors, such as climate change, international trade and introductions of exotic species are often elicited as contributors to the unprecedented rate of disease emergence, but few studies have partitioned these factors for global pandemics. Although contemporary correlative species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for predicting the spatial patterns of emerging diseases, they focus mainly on the fundamental niche (FN) predictors (i.e. abiotic climate and habitat factors), neglecting dispersal and propagule pressure predictors (PP, number of non-native individuals released into a region). Using a validated, predictive and global SDM, we show that both FN and PP accounted for significant, unique variation to the distribution of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen implicated in the declines and extinctions of over 200 amphibian species worldwide. Bd was associated positively with vegetation, total trade and introduced amphibian hosts, nonlinearly with annual temperature range and non-significantly with amphibian leg trade or amphibian species richness. These findings provide a rare example where both FN and PP factors are predictive of a global pandemic. Our model should help guide management of this deadly pathogen and the development of other globally predictive models for species invasions and pathogen emergence influenced by FN and PP factors.
منابع مشابه
Climate , vegetation , introduced hosts and trade shape a global
Supplementary data tml http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/suppl/2012/12/14/rspb.2012.2506.DC1.h "Data Supplement" References http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1753/20122506.full.html#ref-list-1 This article cites 46 articles, 10 of which can be accessed free Subject collections (196 articles) health and disease and epidemiology (192 articles) environmental scienc...
متن کاملIs Australia prepared for the next pandemic?
nfectious diseases continue to threaten global health security, despite decades of advances in hygiene, Ivaccination and antimicrobial therapies. Population growth, widespread international travel and trade, political instability and climate change have caused rapid changes in human populations, wildlife and agriculture, in turn increasing the risk of infection transmission within and between c...
متن کاملRevealing the Appetite of the Marine Aquarium Fish Trade: The Volume and Biodiversity of Fish Imported into the United States
The aquarium trade and other wildlife consumers are at a crossroads forced by threats from global climate change and other anthropogenic stressors that have weakened coastal ecosystems. While the wildlife trade may put additional stress on coral reefs, it brings income into impoverished parts of the world and may stimulate interest in marine conservation. To better understand the influence of t...
متن کاملManaging the Wildlife Protected Areas in the Face of Global Economic Recession, HIV/AIDS Pandemic, Political Instability and Climate Change: Experience of Tanzania
متن کامل
The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change
The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Proceedings. Biological sciences
دوره 280 1753 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2013