Visualization Techniques for Revealing Uncertainty to Decision Makers

Modern military simulations employ a variety of models to realistically represent warfighting capabilities and the environments in which these capabilities operate. However, these models rarely represent the uncertainty inherent in realworld domains, and simulations rarely depict uncertainty in decision-makers’ battlespace displays. In this paper, we describe a research program to identify and remedy deficiencies in the portrayal of uncertainty in military decision support systems. We address the issue of multiple sources of uncertainty in military systems by presenting a theoretical model of uncertainty, which builds on cutting-edge research in cognitive decision theory, human psychology, mathematics, and information systems design. We demonstrate some general strategies for visually conveying the complexity that resides within uncertain data without overly increasing the user’s cognitive workload. Our visualizations aim to incorporate the knowledge of the application domain that is necessary for the tasks so that information is provided in context, highlighting critical information, and alerting the user to the predominant aspects of uncertainty within the simulation environment. We also discuss the key quantifiable effects of this approach on human-system performance, such as reduced decision time and increased situational awareness, decision accuracy, and user confidence.