Forecaster’s Guide to Tropical Meteorology

FORECASTER’S FORUM Weather Forecasting by Humans—Heuristics and Decision Making

The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical in all respects to the typical subjects used in judgment and decision-making studies, there also is evidence that weather forecasters are not so different that the existing und...

Economic Forecasting *

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster’s objectives. Decision theory provides a framework for both the construction and evaluation of forecasts. This framework allows an understanding of the ch...

Tropical Meteorology

Technical guide to Set Up a Spectral Solar Direct Normal Irradiance Permanent Station: Study Area- Hannover, Germany

The spectral Direct Normal Irradiance (SDNI) is a basic radiometric quantity from which many other quantities can be derived. It provides not only information about the spectral and distribution of the direct solar radiation reaching a particular location. Accurate knowledge about the spectral direct irradiance shall enable us to gain new scientific results in the: determination of cloud effect...

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ec...