Commentary Jeffrey
نویسنده
چکیده
Professor Klein has written a thoroughly appealing paper to start off our discussion. The paper is lucid and to the point. In a few pages, Klein summarizes a rich view of the stagflation process and gives us a forecast of the next decade based on that view. Klein's views are particularly cogent when compared to the welter of interpretations that are now coming forward to explain our economic malaise. If Klein's views may be termed eclectic Keynesianism, the major competitor in the public debate might be called "Pogoism," for holding, like the cartoon character, that "we have met the enemy and they is us." Reagan all view our economic failings as the result of our own economic policies, rather than of the external shocks and exogenous demographic changes that Klein emphasizes. A third, and more pernicious , view holds that our malaise results from the unfair practices of other countries, particularly Japan. Paul Krugman will make some level-headed remarks about this view in a later paper. I agree with Klein's assessment that external shocks, demograph-ics, and plain bad luck have had more to do with the stagflation experience than have over-expansionary Keynesian policies, to which the Pogoists point. But since Klein pretty much sticks to his own position without comparing it to other views, we don't really get a good feeling for the evidence one way or the other. In my comments, I will draw on some crosscountry data that supports, in broad outline, the position in Klein's paper. Using that evidence, I'll also try to move one step further, to suggest an area where government support of structural change might contribute to enhanced macroeconomic stability. Since Klein's views are so aptly summarized, I can skip airectly to
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تاریخ انتشار 2005