Agent-based simulation of the spatial dynamics of crime: on the interplay between criminal hot spots and reputation

An important challenge within the field of Criminology is to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of crime. Typical questions in this area are how the behaviour of offenders, targets, and guardians, and the emergence and displacement of criminal hot spots can be predicted. This paper presents an agent-based simulation model that can be used as an experimental tool to address such questions. The simulation model particularly focuses on the interplay between hot spots and reputation. Using the model, a number of simulation experiments have been performed, of which results have been analysed using formal techniques. The results indicate that the presented approach is able to adequately reproduce displacement patterns as described in the literature.