A combined sensitivity analysis and kriging surrogate modeling for early validation of health indicators
نویسندگان
چکیده
To increase the dependability of complex systems, one solution is to assess their state of health continuously through the monitoring of variables sensitive to potential degradation modes. When computed in an operating environment, these variables, known as health indicators, are subject to many uncertainties. Hence, the stochastic nature of health assessment combined with the lack of data in design stages makes it difficult to evaluate the efficiency of a health indicator before the system enters into service. This paper introduces a method for early validation of health indicators during the design stages of a system development process. This method uses physics-based modeling and uncertainties propagation to create simulated stochastic data. However, because of the large number of parameters defining the model and its computation duration, the necessary runtime for uncertainties propagation is prohibitive. Thus, kriging is used to obtain low computation time estimations of the model outputs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis techniques are performed upstream to determine the hierarchization of the model parameters and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The validation is based on three types of numerical key performance indicators corresponding to the detection, identification and prognostic processes. After having introduced and formalized the framework of uncertain systems modeling and the different performance metrics, the issues of sensitivity analysis and surrogate modeling are addressed. The method is subsequently applied to the validation of a set of health indicators for the monitoring of an aircraft engine’s pumping unit. & 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
Mathematical Modeling for Volatile Organic Compounds Removal in a Biofilter: Model Validation and Sensitivity Analysis
متن کامل
A new surrogate modeling technique combining Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions - Application to uncertainty analysis in computational dosimetry
In numerical dosimetry, the recent advances in high performance computing led to a strong reduction of the required computational time to assess the specific absorption rate (SAR) characterizing the human exposure to electromagnetic waves. However, this procedure remains time-consuming and a single simulation can request several hours. As a consequence, the influence of uncertain input paramete...
متن کاملCharacterizing Uncertainty Attributable to Surrogate Models
This paper investigates the characterization of the uncertainty in the prediction of surrogate models. In the practice of engineering, where predictive models are pervasively used, the knowledge of the level of modeling error in any region of the design space is uniquely helpful for design exploration and model improvement. The lack of methods that can explore the spatial variation of surrogate...
متن کاملNonlinear disjunctive kriging for the estimating and modeling of a vein copper deposit
ABSTRACT Estimation of mineral resources and reserves with low values of error is essential in mineral exploration. The aim of this study is to estimate and model a vein type deposit using disjunctive kriging method. Disjunctive Kriging (DK) as an appropriate nonlinear estimation method has been used for estimation of Cu values. For estimation of Cu values and modelling of the distributio...
متن کاملAPPLICATION OF KRIGING METHOD IN SURROGATE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS
In this paper, Kriging has been chosen as the method for surrogate construction. The basic idea behind Kriging is to use a weighted linear combination of known function values to predict a function value at a place where it is not known. Kriging attempts to determine the best combination of weights in order to minimize the error in the estimated function value. Because the actual function value...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Rel. Eng. & Sys. Safety
دوره 130 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2014