A risk and cost–benefit analysis of police counter-terrorism operations at Australian airports

Recent events have highlighted the vulnerabilities of airports and aircraft to terrorist attack, and has led to an increased police presence at many airports. Airport policing is designed to protect airport terminals and aircraft from terrorist attack. This paper assesses the risks and cost-effectiveness of Australian Federal Police (AFP) airport counter-terrorism (CT) policing at Australian airports. The risk reduction of AFP policing, losses from a successful attack, threat likelihood, and cost of AFP policing are quantified. The benefit-to-cost ratio is then calculated for various threat probabilities. A ‘break-even’ analysis calculates the minimum threat probability or risk reduction needed for AFP airport CT policing to be cost-effective. Airport CT policing begins to become cost-effective if it reduces risk by approximately 25 percent and if the probability of one attack at any airport in Australia exceeds 5 percent per year. These conditions do not seem prevail, but it does not follow that zero spending on airport CT policing is the preferred policy option. Moreover, the co-benefits of airport CT policing—such as reduction in crime and reassurance to the traveling public—may be considerable, and could dramatically improving the cost-effectiveness of the measure.