Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models
نویسندگان
چکیده
Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height. This paper discusses methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System. The ECMWF system produces Monte Carlo style forecasts of wave statistics out to a lead time of 10 days. This ensemble of forecasts is designed to reflect uncertainty in current global weather conditions. In this paper a method for post-processing the ensemble forecasts of wave statistics is described and demonstrated using the significant wave height forecasts for four locations of interest to the offshore industry. The post-processing results in ensemble forecasts which have improved reliability, and which are better predictors of the expected error in the forecast. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
20 Years of Operational Forecasting at Oceanweather
The rapid evolution of numerical wave prediction models over the past three decades has been closely linked with the desire to improve operational wave forecasting systems. For example, the P-T-B directional spectral wave model (Pierson et al., 1966), supported initially to develop new wave climate data for improved ship design, was implemented at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography (FNOC, now FNM...
متن کاملGenerating Probabilities From Numerical Weather Forecasts by Logistic Regression
Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert output from numerical weather forecasting systems (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts for binary events. A logistic model obtains by putting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear combination of the inputs. As any statistical model, logistic models will suffer from over-fitting if the number of inputs is comparable to th...
متن کاملInvestigation into the use of surf web cameras to improve the accuracy of forecasting wave behavior
Countless web cameras scattered about the UK help surfers decide which beach to visit on any given day. Modern weather models predict the wave features based on deep ocean readings but the underlying morphology of the beach and weather based external factors vary the actual conditions substantially. No strong method of feedback for the accuracy of these weather models, exists and with such a ch...
متن کاملA review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe
Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated i...
متن کاملA synoptic-climatology approach to increase the skill of numerical weather predictions over Iran
Simplifications used in regional climate models decrease the accuracy of the regional climate models. To overcome this deficiency, usually a statistical technique of MOS is used to improve the skill of gridded outputs of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, an experimental synoptic-climatology based method has been used to calibrate, and decrease amount of errors in GFS...
متن کامل