The Centre of Gravity Network Effects Tool: Probabilistic Modelling for Operational Planning

The centre of gravity (COG) Network Effects Tool (COGNET) uses Bayesian networks to represent the COG causal structure. Its impact analysis capability facilitates the determination of the critical vulnerabilities that have to be degraded or negated to influence the COG. COGNET provides a modelling framework and a generic model database to aid knowledge reuse and knowledge transfer. Its graphical user interface is tailored to the military user and provides a user-friendly capability for populating and interacting with the models. In this report we discuss the methodology, development and implementation of the COGNET suite. The importance of this work is that it uses existing planning process concepts to facilitate the construction of comprehensive models in which uncertainties and subjective judgements are clearly represented, thus enabling future re-use and traceability.