The Impact of Cloud Radiative Feedback, Remote ENSO Forcing, and Entrainment on the Persistence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The influence of cloud radiative feedback, remote ENSO heat flux forcing, and oceanic entrainment on persisting North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated using a stochastically forced ocean mixed layer model. The stochastic heat flux is estimated from an atmospheric general circulation model, the seasonally varying radiative feedback parameter and remote ENSO forcing are obtained from observations, and entrainment is derived from the observed mean seasonal cycle of ocean mixed layer depth. Persistence is examined via SST autocorrelations in the western, central, and subtropical eastern North Pacific and for the leading pattern of variability across the basin. The contribution of clouds, ENSO, and entrainment to SST persistence is evaluated by comparing simulations with and without each term. The SST autocorrelation structure in the model closely resembles nature: the pattern correlation between the two is 0.87–0.9 in the three regions and for the basinwide analyses, and 0.35–0.66 after subtracting an exponential function representing the background damping resulting from air–sea heat fluxes. Positive radiative feedback enhances SST autocorrelations ( 0.1–0.3) from late spring to summer in the central and western Pacific and from late summer to fall in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The influence of the remote ENSO forcing on SST autocorrelation varies with season and location with a maximum impact on the correlation magnitude of 0.2–0.3. The winter-to-winter recurrence of higher autocorrelations is caused by entrainment, which generally suppresses SST variability but returns thermal anomalies sequestered beneath the mixed layer in summer back to the surface in the following fall/winter. This reemergence mechanism enhances SST autocorrelation by 0.3 at lags of 9–12 months from the previous winter in the western and central Pacific, but only slightly enhances autocorrelation ( 0.1) in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The impact of clouds, ENSO, and entrainment on the autocorrelation structure of the basinwide SST anomaly pattern is similar to that in the western region. ENSO’s impact on the basinwide North Pacific SST autocorrelation in an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model with observed SSTs specified in the tropical Pacific is very similar to the results from the stochastic model developed here.