Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. A model of information markets is proposed. Some fundamental properties on when information markets will converge to the most desirable equilibrium, direct communication equilibrium, are derived.
منابع مشابه
Predicting Uncertain Outcomes Using Information Markets: Trader Behavior and Information Aggregation
Forecasting seems to be a ubiquitous endeavor in human societies. In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. Information markets are markets that are specially designed for aggregating information and making predictions on future events. A generic model of information markets is proposed. We derive some fundamental properties on...
متن کاملA DSS-Based Dynamic Programming for Finding Optimal Markets Using Neural Networks and Pricing
One of the substantial challenges in marketing efforts is determining optimal markets, specifically in market segmentation. The problem is more controversial in electronic commerce and electronic marketing. Consumer behaviour is influenced by different factors and thus varies in different time periods. These dynamic impacts lead to the uncertain behaviour of consumers and therefore harden the t...
متن کاملPredictive Power of Markets
Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as business and sports forecasting. Prediction markets are a promising approach for predicting uncertain future events and developments. To give a few examples, prediction markets have been employed successfully to aggregate information on the expected outcome of elections, sports events, and Oscar winners. This work studies the prediction a...
متن کاملEfficiency in prediction markets, evidence from SciCast.org
Prediction markets have been proposed as an mechanism for collective information elicitation. We analyze data from SciCast, an online prediction market focused on events of scientific interest, to understand the predictive power of the prices to forecast events. Users receive a fixed number of points (5,000) when they join the site, and can trade contingent claims on the different outcomes of t...
متن کاملAn in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
The novel idea of setting up Internet-based virtual markets, information markets, to aggregate dispersed information and predict outcomes of uncertain future events has empirically found its way into many domains. But the theoretical examination of information markets has lagged relative to their implementation and use. This paper proposes a simple theoretical model of information markets to un...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2005