Bayesian portfolio selection with multi-variate random variance models

نویسندگان

  • Refik Soyer
  • Kadir Tanyeri
چکیده

We consider multi-period portfolio selection problems for a decision maker with a specified utility function when the variance of security returns is described by a discrete time stochastic model. The solution of these problems involves a dynamic programming formulation and backward induction. We present a simulation-based method to solve these problems adopting an approach which replaces the preposterior analysis by a surface fitting based optimization approach. We provide examples to illustrate the implementation of our approach. 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Discount Weighted Bayesian Model Averaging for Portfolio Decisions in Matrix Variate Dynamic Linear Models Discount-Weighted Bayesian Model Averaging for Portfolio Decisions in Matrix Variate Dynamic Linear Models

In this paper, we assess Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques for dynamic linear models (DLMs) with variance matrix discounting. In previous research, the discount factors for the variance matrices and the auto-regressive lag have typically been pre-determined and held constant over time. Using posterior model probabilities, we average DLMs employing different discount rates and lag parame...

متن کامل

A fuzzy random multi-objective approach for portfolio selection

In this paper, the portfolio selection problem is considered, where fuzziness and randomness appear simultaneously in optimization process. Since return and dividend play an important role in such problems, a new model is developed in a mixed environment by incorporating fuzzy random variable as multi-objective nonlinear model. Then a novel interactive approach is proposed to determine the pref...

متن کامل

A Mean-Variance Hybrid-Entropy Model for Portfolio Selection with Fuzzy Returns

s: In this paper, we define the portfolio return as fuzzy average yield and risk as hybrid-entropy and variance to deal with the portfolio selection problem with both random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty, and propose a mean-variance hybrid-entropy model (MVHEM). A multi-objective genetic algorithm named Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is introduced to solve the model. W...

متن کامل

A Proposal of Multi-period Mean-variance Portfolio Selection Model with Uncertain Returns

Multi-period portfolio selection problem attracts more and more attentions because it is in accordance with the practical investment decision-making problem. However, the existing literature on this field is almost undertaken by regarding security returns as random variables in the framework of probability theory. Different from these works, we assume that security returns are uncertain variabl...

متن کامل

Financial Risk Modeling with Markova Chain

Investors use different approaches to select optimal portfolio. so, Optimal investment choices according to return can be interpreted in different models. The traditional approach to allocate portfolio selection called a mean - variance explains. Another approach is Markov chain. Markov chain is a random process without memory. This means that the conditional probability distribution of the nex...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • European Journal of Operational Research

دوره 171  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2006