Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Eventsy
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چکیده
Three experiments tested the exemplar cuing and frequency format accounts of how the ‘imaginability’ of low-probability events is enhanced. The experiments manipulated imaginability by varying the statistics used to describe negative (e.g. being scarred as a result of laser surgery) and positive (e.g. winning a lottery) low-probability events. The results strongly supported the frequency format account, whereby imaginability is enhanced through the use of frequency formats for conveying statistical information (e.g. 20 out of 2000 as opposed to 0.01%). However, only limited support was found for exemplar cuing (EC) theory. Overall the results support the claim that the imaginability of outcomes plays a key role in thinking about low-probability events, but question the mechanisms specified by EC theory for mediating such effects. Copyright# 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key words imaginability; exemplar cuing; frequency format; probability judgment
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Comments on "Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Events," By Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (2008)
Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (NMH) conduct three experiments designed to test whether exemplar cuing (EC) theory or a statistical format theory provides a more accurate account for how people make judgments about low-probability events. They report finding support for the statistical format theory and little or no support for EC. However, NMHmisstate the requirements for the production of exempl...
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تاریخ انتشار 2008