Modeling Events with Cascades of Poisson Processes
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm can be implemented as a distributed algorithm, permitting the model to be applied to very large datasets. We apply these techniques to the modeling of Twitter messages and the revision history of Wikipedia.
منابع مشابه
Modeling Events in Time using Cascades of Poisson Processes
Modeling Events in Time using Cascades of Poisson Processes by Aleksandr Simma Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science and the Designated Emphassis in Communication, Computation, and Statistics University of California, Berkeley Professor Michael I. Jordan, Chair For many applications, the data of interest can be best thought of as events – entities that occur at a particular moment in time, h...
متن کاملExact Statistical Inference for Some Parametric Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes
Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs) are often used to model recurrent events, and there is thus a need to check model fit for such models. We study the problem of obtaining exact goodness-of-fit tests for certain parametric NHPPs, using a method based on Monte Carlo simulation conditional on sufficient statistics. A closely related way of obtaining exact confidence intervals in parametri...
متن کاملConstruction of Signed Multiplicative Cascades
Positive T -martingales were developed as a general framework that extends the positive measure-valued martingales and are meant to model intermittent turbulence. We extend their scope by allowing the martingale to take complex values. We focus on martingales constructed on the interval T = [0, 1], and replace random measures by random functions. We specify a large class of such martingales, on...
متن کاملNumerical solution and simulation of random differential equations with Wiener and compound Poisson Processes
Ordinary differential equations(ODEs) with stochastic processes in their vector field, have lots of applications in science and engineering. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the numerical methods for ODEs with Wiener and Compound Poisson processes in more than one dimension. Ordinary differential equations with Ito diffusion which is a solution of an Ito stochastic differentia...
متن کاملOptimal Consumption and Portfolio Policies for Important Jump Events: Modeling and Computational Considerations
While the volatility of portfolios are often modeled by continuous Brownian motion processes, discontinuous jump processes are more appropriate for modeling important external events that significantly affect the prices of financial assets. Here the discontinuous jump processes are modeled by state and control dependent compound Poisson processes, such that the random jumps come at the times of...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2010