On Approximate Fully Probabilistic Design of Decision Making Strategies

An efficient support of a single decision maker is vital in constructing scalable systems addressing complex decision-making (DM) tasks. Fully probabilistic design (FPD) of DM strategies, an extension of dynamic Bayesian DM, provides a firm basis for such a support. The limited cognitive and evaluation resources of the supported decision maker cause that theoretically optimal solutions are realised only approximately. Thus, the truly efficient support has to include reliable means for constructing approximate solutions of DM subtasks. The current paper deals with the design of the approximately optimal DM strategy for a known environment model and adequately described DM preferences. The design relies on: a) the explicit minimiser found within FPD; b) randomised nature of the strategy provided by FPD.