La Follette School of Public Affairs
نویسندگان
چکیده
We combined an expert elicitation and a bottom-up manufacturing cost model to compare the effects of R&D and demand subsidies. We modeled their effects on the future costs of a low-carbon energy technology that is not currently commercially available, purely organic photovoltaics (PV). We found that (1) successful R&D programs reduced costs more than did subsidies, (2) successful R&D enabled PV to achieve a cost target of 4c/kWh, and (3) the cost of PV did not reach the target when only subsidies, and not R&D, were implemented. These results are insensitive to two levels of policy intensity, the level of a carbon price, the availability of storage technology, and uncertainty in the main parameters used in the model. However, a case can still be made for subsidies: comparisons of stochastic dominance show that subsidies provide a hedge against failure in the R&D program. 1Corresponding author. Assistant Professor, La Follette School of Public Affairs and Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, 1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706, phone: +1(608) 265-3469, fax: +1(608) 265-3233, email: [email protected]. 2Assistant Professor, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
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تاریخ انتشار 2008