Assessment of Air-Pollution Control Policy’s Impact on China’s PV Power: A System Dynamics Analysis

Abstract: Recently, China has brought out several air-pollution control policies, which indicate the prominent position that PV power hold in improving atmosphere environment. Under this policy environment, the development of China’s PV power will be greatly affected. Firstly, after analyzing the influencing path of air-pollution control policies on PV power, this paper built a system dynamics model, which can be used as a platform for predicting China’s PV power development in every policy scenario during 2015–2025. Secondly, different model parameters are put into the SD model to simulate three scenarios of air-pollution control policies. Comparisons between the simulated results of different policy scenarios measure the air-pollution control policy’s impact on China’s PV power in the aspect of generation, installed capacity, power curtailment and so on. This paper points out the long-term development pattern of China’s PV power under latest incentive policies, and provides reference for the policymakers to increase the effect and efficiency of air-pollution control policies.