Estimating Residential Projects Cost Contingencies Using a Belief Network
نویسندگان
چکیده
The aim of this research is to develop a system for estimating cost contingencies during a tender preparation. The proposed system is composed of a causal belief network and a risk-contingency model. A survey was conducted to evaluate the significance of twenty two factors affecting residential projects' cost overruns. The results were employed to define the conditional probability distributions of the belief network nodes. The main role of the belief network is to assess the level of risk and uncertainty associated with a project. Based on this anticipated level and a risk-contingency model developed based on experts' opinions, an estimated suitable contingency percentage can be predicted. Finally, a user friendly interface was developed to facilitate the use of the system using Visual Basic programming language.
منابع مشابه
Forecasting the Cost of Water Using a Neural Network Method in the Municipality of Isfahan
Decision making on budgeting is one of the most important issues for executing managers. Budgeting is a major tool for planning and control of projects. In public and non-profit organizations and institutions, estimating the costs and revenues plays an important role in receiving credit and budgeting. In this regard, in the present paper the case of Isfahan municipality is considered. One of th...
متن کاملA Neural Network Model for Construction Projects Site Overhead Cost Estimating in Egypt
Estimating of the overhead costs of building construction projects is an important task in the management of these projects. The quality of construction management depends heavily on their accurate cost estimation. Construction costs prediction is a very difficult and sophisticated task especially when using manual calculation methods. This paper uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to...
متن کاملA New Architecture Based on Artificial Neural Network and PSO Algorithm for Estimating Software Development Effort
Software project management has always faced challenges that have often had a great impact on the outcome of projects in future. For this, Managers of software projects always seek solutions against challenges. The implementation of unguaranteed approaches or mere personal experiences by managers does not necessarily suffice for solving the problems. Therefore, the management area of software p...
متن کاملOn The Fractional Minimal Cost Flow Problem of a Belief Degree Based Uncertain Network
A fractional minimal cost flow problem under linear type belief degree based uncertainty is studied for the first time. This type of uncertainty is useful when no historical information of an uncertain event is available. The problem is crisped using an uncertain chance-constrained programming approach and its non-linear objective function is linearized by a variable changing approach. An illus...
متن کاملA New Uncertain Modeling of Production Project Time and Cost Based on Atanassov Fuzzy Sets
Uncertainty plays a major role in any project evaluation and management process. One of the trickiest parts of any production project work is its cost and time forecasting. Since in the initial phases of production projects uncertainty is at its highest level, a reliable method of project scheduling and cash flow generation is vital to help the managers reach successful implementation of the ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2005