Convergence Time to the Ewens Sampling Formula

In this paper, we establish the cutoff phenomena for the discrete time infinite alleles Moran model. If M is the population size and μ is the mutation rate, we find a cutoff time of log(Mμ)/μ generations. The stationary distribution for this process in the case of sampling without replacement is the Ewens sampling formula. We show that the bound for the total variation distance from the generation t distribution to the Ewens sampling formula is well approximated by one of the extreme value distributions, namely, a standard Gumbel distribution. Beginning with the card shuffling examples of Aldous and Diaconis and extending the ideas of Donnelly and Rodrigues for the two allele model, this model adds to the list of Markov chains that displays the cutoff phenomenon. Because of the broad use of infinite alleles models, this cutoff sets the time scale of applicability for statistical tests based on the Ewens sampling formula and other tests of neutrality in a number of population genetic studies.