Development of a Dynamic Traffic Assignment System for Short-Term Planning Applications

Evaluation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) at the planning level, as well as various short-term planning projects, require the use of appropriate tools that can capture the dynamic and stochastic interactions between demand and supply. The objective of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for such applications and implement it in the context of an existing dynamic traffic assignment system, DynaMIT. The methodological framework captures the day-to-day evolution of traffic. Furthermore, it models traveler behavior and network performance, in response to special events and situations such as incidents, weather emergencies, sport events etc. The new planning tool DynaMIT-P, consists of a supply (network performance) simulator, a demand simulator and algorithms that capture their interactions. The supply simulator captures traffic dynamics in terms of evolution and dissipation of queues, spill-backs etc. The demand simulator estimates OD flows that best match current measurements of them in the network, and models travel behavior in terms of route choice, departure time choice and response to information. DynaMIT-P is particularly suited to evaluate Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) and Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) at various levels of sophistication. The results of a case study, focusing on the evaluation of alternative designs of Variable Message Signs (VMS) using a network in Irvine, California, illustrate the functionality and potential of the system. Thesis Supervisor: Moshe Ben-Akiva Title: Edmund K. Turner Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Thesis Supervisor: Haris N. Koutsopoulos Title: Volpe National Transportation Center