Visualizations for assessing convergence and mixing of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

نویسندگان

  • Jaakko Peltonen
  • Jarkko Venna
  • Samuel Kaski
چکیده

Bayesian inference often requires approximating the posterior distribution by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The samples come from the true distribution only after the simulation has converged, which makes detecting convergence a central problem. Commonly, several simulation chains are started from different points, and their overlap is used as a measure of convergence. Convergence measures cannot tell the cause of convergence problems; it is suggested that complementing them with proper visualization will help. A novel connection is pointed out: linear discriminant analysis (LDA) minimizes the overlap of the simulation chains measured by a common multivariate convergence measure. LDA is thus justified for visualizing convergence. However, LDA makes restrictive assumptions about the chains, which can be relaxed by a recent extension called discriminative component analysis (DCA). Lastly, methods are introduced for unidentifiable models and model families with variable number of parameters, where straightforward visualization in the parameter space is not feasible.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Visualizations for Assessing Convergence and Mixing of MCMC

Bayesian inference often requires approximating the posterior distribution with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. A central problem with MCMC is how to detect whether the simulation has converged. The samples come from the true posterior distribution only after convergence. A common solution is to start several simulations from different starting points, and measure overlap of the diffe...

متن کامل

Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Related Topics

This article provides a brief review of recent developments in Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology. The methods discussed include the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the Gibbs sampler, and various special cases of interest to practitioners. It also devotes a section on strategies for improving mixing rate of MCMC samplers, e.g., simulated tempering, parallel tempering, parameter expans...

متن کامل

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an umbrella term for algorithms that use Markov chains to sample from a given probability distribution. This paper is a brief examination of Markov chain Monte Carlo and its usage. We begin by discussing Markov chains and the ergodicity, convergence, and reversibility thereof before proceeding to a short overview of Markov chain Monte Carlo and the use of mixing time...

متن کامل

A Stochastic algorithm to solve multiple dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind

In the present work‎, ‎a new stochastic algorithm is proposed to solve multiple dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind‎. ‎The solution of the‎ integral equation is described by the Neumann series expansion‎. ‎Each term of this expansion can be considered as an expectation which is approximated by a continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method‎. ‎An algorithm is proposed to sim...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis

دوره 53  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2009