Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran

Background & Aim: Physicians as human capital and resources are one of the main components of health production. The imbalance of physician supply and demand affects the health and economics. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate and forecast the supply and demand of physician working in Iranian medical universities. Materials and Methods: This a descriptive-analytical and applied study was conducted at national level for Iran during 1991-2017. The statistical population was physicians working in Iranian medical universities. ARIMA method was used to estimate and forecast physician supply and Vector Error Correction Models was used for physician demand. The data is annual time series that was extracted from the statistical yearbooks of the Statistical Center of Iran and the World Bank database. Eviews 10 software was used to estimate the models. Results: The results showed that physician demand in Iran was affected by Gross Domestic Product, age structure and hospital beds, and according to the forecast of supply and demand of physicians, we will be faced to the physician shortage in the years 2018-2030. Conclusion: In the coming years, Iran is facing with physician shortage. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase physician capacity in medical universities and to increase strong incentives to retain physicians and prevent their migration.