Modeling the discharge of rivers in selected watersheds of Guilan province during climate change

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Abstract:

   In this essay, we investigated the effects of climate change on the rivers of selected basins of Guilan province, one of the northern provinces of Iran for the period 2020 to 2050 under three climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data from 45 climate data stations and 20 hydrometric stations from 1983 to 2013 were used. The average precipitation and temperature at basin level were calculated by drawing both Isohyet and Isothermal lines by usage Kriging method. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to determine the significance of the data trends and their slope, respectively. The results showed that temperature has increased in all catchments during the study period and this trend was significant in most of them but no significant trend was observed for precipitation. Discharge has also decreased in most basins and this trend was significant in Shafarood, Navrood and Chafrood basins. However, for future periods, precipitation is not significant in any of the climate scenarios, but the temperature is increasing in all scenarios except for the RCP2.6 scenario. Rivers discharge in the RCP2.6 scenario is not significant in any of the basins, but in the RCP4.5 scenario the Shafarood and Ghasht-Roodkan catchments have a significant reduction in the 95% confidence level. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the Chafrood and Shafarood basins have a 99% confidence reduction trend.  

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Journal title

volume 7  issue 2

pages  121- 136

publication date 2020-08

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