Forecasting Crash risk using Business Strategy, Equity Overvaluation and Conditional Skewness in Stock Price
A firm is called to have stock price crash risk if the firm has a tendency to experience a sudden drop in its stock price. In this study, the relation between the firm-level of business strategy and future stock price crash risk Is examined, as well as the effect of stock overvaluation on the relationship between business strategy and crash risk investigated. Using the strategy index and crash risk indicators the question that whether innovative business strategies (prospectors) are more prone to future crash risk than defenders is investigated. In so doing, we identify two main hypotheses and the data of 111 listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange for the period between 2009 and 2017 were analyzed and a panel data approach has been used to test of research hypotheses. We develop a measure of business strategy based on Miles and Snow and test the association between this business strategy measure, overvaluation and stock price crash risk. Our investigations show that overvalued firms on average have higher price crash risk.
Investigating the Effect of Business Strategy and Stock Price Synchronicity on Stock Price Crash Risk
Stock price crash risk has a significant impact on investors, creditors, managers, and shareholders, so the prediction of this phenomenon is a very important issue in investment and risk management decisions. This research investigates the effect of business strategy and stock price synchronicity on stock price crash risk. Following Bentley et al., composite strategy score has been used to ...متن کامل
Stock price crash risk is a phenomenon in which stock prices are subject to severe negative and sudden adjustments. So far, different approaches have been proposed to model and predict the stock price crash risk, which in most cases have been the main emphasis on the factors affecting it, and often traditional methods have been used for prediction. On the other hand, using Meta Heuristic Alg...متن کامل
The especial importance of capital market in countries is undeniable in economic development via effective capital conduct and optimum resources allocation. Investment in capital market requires decision making in new stock exchanges, and accessing information in the case of future status of capital market. Undoubtedly, nowadays most part of capital is exchanged via stock exchange all around ...متن کامل
This paper presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. JEL: E17, E31, C43متن کامل
Stock market is affected by news and information. If the stock market is not efficient, the reaction of stock price to news and information will place the stock market in overreaction and under-reaction states. Many models have been already presented by using different tools and techniques to forecast the stock market behavior. In this study, the reaction of stock price in the stock market was ...متن کامل
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive retu...متن کامل
دوره 4 شماره 16
صفحات 13- 25
تاریخ انتشار 2020-01-01
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