We find that competition from payday lenders leads depository institutions to raise overdraft fees and reduce the availability of “free” checking accounts. We attribute this rise in prices partly to adverse selection created by banks’ practice of charging a flat fee regardless of the overdraft amount―pricing that favors depositors prone to large overdrafts. Payday credit is priced per dollar bo...

The main purpose of this paper is providing a model to calculate the credit risk of Melli bank clients and implement it at Mellat Bank. Therefore, the present study uses a multi-layered neural network method. The statistical population of this research is all real and legal clients of Melli and Mellat banks. Sampling method used in this research is a simple random sampling method. Friedman test...

WHAT IS HINDSIGHT BIAS? In 1972, President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to China, which had become virtually a closed country following the 1949 revolution. There was intense speculation on what Nixon might achieve. In a now-famous study, Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth (1975) asked their students to estimate probabilities for events relating to his visit. An example: “The USA will establ...

We construct a new credit spread index, employing an extensive micro-level data set of secondary market prices of outstanding senior unsecured bonds over the 1973– 2009 period. Compared with the standard default-risk indicators such as the Baa-Aaa corporate bond spread and the paper-bill spread, our credit spread index is a robust predictor of future economic activity across a variety of econom...

Credit booms often cause economic expansions. But some credit booms end in financial crises yet others do not. To find out why, this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of production economies with adverse selection in the financial market. Entrepreneurs can take on short-term collateralized debt and trade long-term assets to finance investment. Funding liquidity can erode market...

Cash and cheques were virtually the only means of payment available to most Australians until Bankcard credit cards were introduced a little over 20 years ago. Only in the past decade or so has there been a credible and concerted challenge to the dominant role of cheques for non-cash payments. Today we are seeing the emergence of many alternative payment arrangements; at the same time, banks an...

This study wants to investigate the rating of the actual customers of banks based on credit risk using multiple criteria decision making and artificial intelligence hyperbolic regression. This is an applied research. The statistical population of the study includes the credit customers of Agriculture Bank in west branches of Mazandaran province, Iran in 2012-2016. A total of 100 cases have been...

We develop a completely new model for correlation of credit defaults based on a financially intuitive concept of business time similar to that in the Variance Gamma model for stock price evolution. Solving a simple equation calibrates each name to its credit spread curve and we show that the overall model can be calibrated to the market base correlation curve of a tranched CDO index. Once this ...

This paper examines the risk and return of the so-called capital structure arbitrage, which exploits the mispricing between a company’s debt and equity. Specifically, a structural model provides a connection between a company’s equity price and its credit default swap (CDS) spread. Based on the deviation of CDS market quotes from their theoretical counterparts, a convergence-type trading strate...

Credit risk management is becoming more and more important in recent years. When a company deals with a financial problem, it may not be able to fulfill its financial obligations, which can cause direct and indirect financial losses to shareholders, creditors, investors and other people in the community. Advanced credit risk models that are based on market value include improving credit quality...