This paper presents a hybrid model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the neuro fuzzy modeling approach. The model integrates the learning abil i ty of neural network with the inference mechanism of fuzzy logic . The empirical results show that the proposed neuro fuzzy model leads to a better prediction of crisis . Significantly, the model can also construct a rel iable c...

What's Here Currency unions are all the rage in international policy circles these days. But suppose a country – say Argentina (the usual crisis de jour) – decides that it needs to adopt a foreign currency. Which one should it pick? Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro provide the methodology, or at least most of it, to answer this important and interesting question. Their methodology is reasonable in a...

I show that the US dollar earns a safety premium versus a basket of foreign currencies and that this premium is particularly high in times of global financial stress. These findings support the view that the dollar acts as the reserve currency for the international monetary system and that it is a natural safe haven in times of crisis, when a global flight to quality toward the reserve currency...

Using monthly balance-sheet data of all major German credit banks, we analyze deposit withdrawals and bank failures in the German banking and currency crisis of 1931. We Þnd that deposit withdrawals were driven by the run on the currency, but were also related to banks’ liquidity positions; that branch banks were no more stable than unit banks; and that large banks were privileged, being bailed...

Since 1997, the rupiah currency has a tendency to change at any time since the economic crisis that hit Indonesia. One of the currencies of the most widely traded on international exchange market is the U.S. dollar. This paper will forecast the exchange rate by using back propagation neural networks. Variables that affecting currency exchange rates is inflation, gross national product and inter...