The main purpose of this study is to devise a general regression neural network (GRNN)based currency crisis forecasting model for Southeast Asian economies based upon the disastrous 1997–1998 currency crisis experience. For this some typical indicators of currency exchange rates volatility are first chosen, then these indicators are input into GRNN for training, and finally the trained GRNN is ...

The Interactions between Debt and Currency Crises – Common Causes or Contagion? In contrast to the well-known twin currency and banking crises the literature has so far neglected a second type of twin crises, the simultaneous occurrence of currency and debt crises. The decision of a government to devalue and/or to default is closely interlinked through the government’s intertemporal budget cons...

The contagion aspect of the currency crisis is an important research issue today. In this paper, we set up a dynamic differential model of currency crisis cross contagions between two countries by expanding generalized logistics model, and analyze all kinds of possible equilibrium conditions. It is probably a new idea of studying currency crisis contagion mechanism.

although capital inflows affect positively economies in long-run, it is possible to generate somehow destructive effects if there is no any control on financial markets. this study tries to explore main determinants of large capital inflows episodes to emerging markets. it is also investigated whether the large capital inflows episodes lead to financial crises in forms of sudden stop phenomenon...

In this paper, we provide a re-examination of the exchange rate exposure and foreign currency derivative use by Australian resources firms in the 2006–2009 period which is characterized by increased volatility caused by the global financial crisis. In particular, we consider the interaction of a resources firm’s exchange rate risk exposures, foreign currency derivative use and the global financ...

There have been many currency crises during the postwar era (see Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999). A currency crisis is an episode in which the exchange rate depreciates substantially during a short period of time. There is an extensive literature on the causes and consequences of a currency crisis in a country with a fixed or heavily managed exchange rate. The models in this literature are often c...

— We empirically analyze the effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) involvement on the risk of entering a currency crisis and, respectively, the outcome of such a crisis. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention are more likely to experience currency crises. In a second step, we analyze the IMF’s impact on a country’s decision to adjust the exchange rat...