Updates to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin are described. SHIPS combines climatological, persistence, and synoptic predictors to forecast intensity changes using a multiple regression technique. The original version of the model was developed for the Atlantic basin and was run in near–real time at the Hurricane Research Division beginning in ...

Title of dissertation: INFORMATION SYNTHESIS ACROSS SCALES IN ATMOSPHERIC STATE ESTIMATION: THEORY AND NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS Matthew Kretschmer, Doctor of Philosophy, 2015 Dissertation directed by: Professor Edward Ott Department of Physics This thesis studies the benefits of simultaneously considering system information from di↵erent sources when performing ensemble data assimilation. In parti...

Soil erosion is one of the vital factors contributing to the loss of fertility and environmental degradation. Generally accepted diagnostics of eroded soils is based on comparison of the sloping soils profile depth with the watershed soils. In this case, there is a separate problem of slope soils with a naturally shortened profile and eroded soils. Formation of the soil’s natura...

Based on crime attractor and displacement theories of environmental criminology, we specify a leading indicator model for forecasting serious property and violent crimes. The model, intended for support of tactical deployment of police resources, is at the micro-level scale; namely, one-month-ahead forecasts over a grid system of 104 square grid cells 4,000 feet on a side (with approximately 10...

In a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, and indeed forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to the data. A new explanation for the empirical success of second differencing is proposed. We consider model tra...

the main purpose of the present research is to determine the relationship between the management earnings forecast errors and conservatism level and then surveying about the effects of forecast difficulty, and external financing on this relationship. regarding this, the financial information related to 147 stock firms, available during the period of study (2003-2015) were collected and analyzed...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements...

Long term power load has a big impact on the development of industry of power. The forecasting models of linear systems even a single forecasting model of the nonlinear systems can not forecast the long term power load greatly. In the study, the combined forecasting model of nonlinear systems including chaos and fractal was established to improve the accuracy of the forecast. First, the charact...

It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM) and bound methods are u...