Belief networks are commonly used generative models of data, but require expensive posterior estimation to train and test the model. Learning typically proceeds by posterior sampling, variational approximations, or recognition networks, combined with stochastic optimization. We propose using an online Monte Carlo expectationmaximization (MCEM) algorithm to learn the maximum a posteriori (MAP) e...

in this paper, a formal model for antivirus update agent system is presented based on mobile agent technology and predicate/transition petri nets. the mobile agent system contains two mobile agents called dca and una. it sends out agents to update antivirus on client computers in a network. each agent takes on a specified responsibility. first, dca roams through the network and check the last d...

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is employed. Being computationally fast, the resulting estimation procedure is p...

Supply chain network design in perishable product has become a challenging task due to its short life time, spoilage of product in degradation nature and stochastic market demand. This paper focused on designing and optimizing model for perishable product in stochastic demand, which comprises multiple levels from producer, local collector, wholesaler and retailers. The ultimate goal is to optim...

This paper develops a search model of the labor market in which uncertainty about job finding probabilities leads unemployed to become discouraged and exit the labor market. Negative updating after unsuccessful search implies that the beliefs of the unemployed about themselves, and consequently their subjective job finding probabilities, decline with unemployment duration. The assumptions about...

A stochastic mtiel for fatiguecrackgrowth is applied.which accountsfor uncertainties in loading, initialand critical defectsizes,materialparameters includingspatialvariation,and in the uncertainty relatedto computationof the stressintensityfactor. Failu~ probabilities are computed by first-and second-orderreliability methods and sensitivity factorsare &termined. Model updating based on inservic...