Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is ...

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been extensively used for examining potential failures in products, processes, designs and services. An important issue of FMEA is the determination of risk priorities of the failure modes that have been identified. The traditional FMEA determines the risk priorities of failure modes using the so-called risk priority numbers (RPNs), which require the...

At present, more and more attentions have been paid to dam risk management around the world. In order to deal with the fuzziness and randomness of dam failure, the cloud model was introduced into the risk assessment of dam failure, which was combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method and fuzzy theory, and then the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive assessment of dam failure risk was reali...

in this paper, a new t-s fuzzy hyperbolic delay model for a class of nonlinear systems with time-varying delay, is presented to address the problems of stability analysis and feedback control. fuzzy controller is designed based on the parallel distributed compensation (pdc), and with a new lyapunov function, delay dependent asymptotic stability conditions of the closed-loop system are derived v...

In highly competitive industrial market, the concept of failure analysis is an unavoidable fact in complex industrial systems. Reliability of such systems not only depends on the reliability of each element of these systems, but also depends on occurrence of sequence of failures. In this paper, a novel approach to sequential failure analysis is proposed which is based upon fuzzy logic and the c...

Abstract We extend and refine Aguiar Amador (2019) 's contraction approach to Eaton Gersovitz (1981) sovereign debt model. In particular, we encompass time-varying interest rates growth. show that, when long-term exceed growth, equilibrium is unique can be computed via mapping. The method unifies separate branches of literature, showing that the property reflection previous arbitrage arguments ...

The paper presents a novel type of fuzzy sets, called time-Varying Fuzzy Sets (VFS). These fuzzy sets are based on the Gaussian membership functions, they are depended on the error and they are characterized by the displacement of the kernels to both right and left side of the universe of discourse, the two extremes kernels of the universe are fixed for all time. In this work we focus only on t...